WTO upgrades 2026 global merchandise trade forecast to 3.9%
The World Trade Organization has sharply raised its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure.
The World Trade Organization has upgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade growth projection to 3.9%, a two percentage-point increase from its March forecast of 1.9%. The WTO released the revised outlook in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics on October 8, citing stronger-than-expected demand for AI-enabling goods as the primary driver for the more optimistic view. Merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of the year.
AI investment fuels trade resilience
Surging demand for AI infrastructure accounted for nearly half of the early 2026 trade expansion. Trade in AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers, rose by 67% year-on-year in the first half of the year and represented 47% of global merchandise trade growth during that period. Global investment in AI infrastructure is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026. Capital expenditure in this sector is expected to rise by another 10 to 20% in 2027. This technology-driven expansion has helped cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict, which disrupted energy supplies and important shipping routes.
Regional trade divergences persist
Growth prospects are highly uneven across regions. Asia is expected to lead merchandise export growth at 9.9% in 2026, followed by North America at 5.7%. In stark contrast, the Middle East is projected to see merchandise exports contract by 17.2% and imports shrink by 15.4%. The conflict severely impacted the region's energy exports. Crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas shipments from the region plunged by 47%. Alternative global supplies limited the overall reduction in world crude exports to around 6%, and global LNG exports declined by just 1%.
| Region | 2026 Merchandise Export Growth | 2026 Merchandise Import Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| North America | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Africa | 5.6% | 8.9% |
| South America | 3.4% | Data not provided |
| Europe | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) | -3.9% | 8.8% |
| Middle East | -17.2% | -15.4% |
Services trade shows mixed recovery
Global commercial services trade presents a mixed picture. The WTO cut its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%, down from 4.8% in March. Growth is projected to recover strongly to 6.4% in 2027. The sector showed robust value growth in the first half of 2026, rising 14% year-on-year in the first quarter and 10% in the second. Computer services exports were particularly strong, rising 18% in Q1 and an estimated 12% in Q2. Financial services exports grew by 14% year-on-year in the second quarter. Europe is expected to record the fastest services export growth in 2026 at 4.6%.
Emerging markets show import strength
Import demand highlights a shift toward emerging markets. Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States are projected to record the fastest merchandise import growth in 2026 at 8.9% and 8.8% respectively. Asia leads overall with import growth forecast at 9.5%. This contrasts sharply with weak import demand in advanced economies, where Europe is expected to see only 0.5% growth and North America 1.4%.
Additional indicators show a complex global flow. Global container throughput rose 3.9% year-to-date through July 2026. Travel expenditure showed volatility, soaring 15% year-on-year in Q1 but slowing to 5% growth in Q2, while international tourist arrivals dipped 0.8% in the second quarter. Fertilizer trade patterns were mixed, with global imports of nitrogenous fertilizers 2.8% below recent averages in H1, while phosphatic fertilizer imports were 2.2% higher. Looking ahead, global merchandise trade volume is expected to expand by 4.1% in 2027, provided the Middle East conflict is resolved in time to ease pressure on international supply chains. Global investment in AI infrastructure is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026.
