Shocks & cycles
Treasury Yields Rise on Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Treasury yields surged as traders priced in multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes, including a potential October increase, amid persistent inflation
Shocks & cycles
Shocks & cycles on Trade and Tide: Global growth outlook, Inflation across economies, Monetary policy divergence, Recessions and slowdowns, Energy price shocks and Food prices and security.
Shocks & cycles
Swiss National Bank holds rate at 0% as global peers tighten
The Swiss National Bank kept its key interest rate at 0%, diverging from major trading partners now hiking to fight inflation.
Shocks & cycles
Soaring Treasury Yields Threaten Consumer Spending
A sharp spike in U.S. Treasury yields, driven by inflation fears and weak auction demand, is pushing borrowing costs higher for consumers and businesses
Shocks & cycles
WTO Director-General: AI drove 42% of 2025
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that AI and trade growth are intertwined, with 42% of last year's global goods trade expansion linked to
Shocks & cycles
UK inflation hits 3.1% as fuel costs surge
UK inflation accelerated to 3.1% in August, driven by a sharp 23% annual rise in motor fuel prices. The data comes ahead of a Bank of England policy decision, with markets expecting interest rates to be held steady.
Shocks & cycles
Bond Market Pushes for Fed Rate Hikes Despite Gas Price
The bond market is pushing for Federal Reserve rate hikes to restore inflation-fighting credibility, even though such moves won't lower gasoline prices
Shocks & cycles
Inflation Outpaces U.S. Wage Growth, Squeezing Paychecks
U.S. Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in August, outstripping a 3.1% wage gain and causing real earnings to fall, reversing a year of progress as energy price
Shocks & cycles
U.S. Wholesale Inflation Holds at 5.4% Ahead of Fed Meeting
U.S. Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, keeping annual wholesale inflation at 5.4% and reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike
Shocks & cycles
Fed Rate Hike Likely Next Week After Inflation Pressures
Markets now price a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week, driven by rising wholesale prices and oil above $100 a barrel.
Shocks & cycles
Poland Upgraded to Developed Economy by S&P Global
S&P Dow Jones Indices has reclassified Poland as a developed economy, a move that will shift its stocks into less risky indexes and potentially unlock
Shocks & cycles
WTO report sees major growth potential in Latin America
A new WTO report finds Latin America and the Caribbean's digitally delivered services exports grew fivefold in 20 years but still represent only 2% of the
Shocks & cycles
Oil prices rise
Oil prices climbed after reports of a Saudi Aramco refinery being hit by Houthi rebels, with the West Texas Intermediate contract advancing 0.8% to $92.17
Shocks & cycles
US Private Payrolls Rise 38K
US private payrolls increased by 38K in August, below expectations, with services driving the growth
Shocks & cycles
August Jobs Report Expected to Show Anemic Growth
The August U.S. Jobs report, due Friday, is forecast to show modest payroll growth of 53,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%.
Shocks & cycles
UN warns supersized El Niño to hit global economy until 2027
A 'supersized' El Niño climate event will persist until February 2027, threatening global commodity markets and energy production with extreme weather, the
Shocks & cycles
PwC: AI Spending to Top US, UK Rail
PwC predicts global data center spending will reach $31.6 trillion from 2026 to 2050, surpassing the combined cost of US/UK railways and the internet.
Shocks & cycles
U.S. Manufacturers Frustrated by Inflation
The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 54.6% in August. Tariffs and conflict caused price and supply issues, prompting warnings of slower activity ahead.
Shocks & cycles
Euro zone inflation hits 3.3%, ECB hike seen
Eurostat reports euro zone inflation jumped to 3.3% in August, driven by energy costs, making an ECB interest rate increase highly probable next week.
Shocks & cycles
Singapore's $47k per child bid to reverse
Singapore has launched its largest-ever package of financial incentives, pledging over S$60,000 per citizen child, to combat a total fertility rate that
Shocks & cycles
Economists Debate US Economy Shape
Economists and corporate leaders are divided on whether the US economy remains K-shaped or has shifted to a C or E shape, reflecting ongoing debates about
Shocks & cycles
Warsh Fed Policy Risks Trump Clash
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh advocates for aggressive rate hikes, creating tension with President Trump's growth agenda before the midterms.
Shocks & cycles
PCE Inflation Surges, GDP Holds at 1.5%
U.S. GDP growth steadied at 1.5% in Q2 while PCE inflation rose to 3.7% year-over-year. Durable goods orders jumped 1.1% in July, exceeding forecasts.
Shocks & cycles
DICK'S Sporting Goods Misses Q2 Earnings
DICK'S Sporting Goods reported a second consecutive quarterly earnings miss, sending its shares down 18%. Pre-market futures show modest gains across major U.S. indices, while the S&P Case-Shiller index indicates continued real-term declines in home prices. The market awaits the Consumer Confidence report and upcoming earnings from Zoom, Box, Intuit and NVIDIA.
Shocks & cycles
Fed's Core PCE Hits 3.3% in July
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge shows core personal consumption expenditures rose 3.3% annually in July, matching forecasts. The report also highlights modest gains in personal income and spending, while goods prices fell and services prices edged up.
Shocks & cycles
US Economy Loses Jobs in July, Unemployment Rate Edges Lower
The US economy saw an unexpected decline in jobs in July, with nonfarm payrolls falling by 23,000, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%
Shocks & cycles
Iran War Threatens to Halt UK's Rapid Economic Growth
The UK economy is experiencing a rebound, but the ongoing Iran war and high energy prices pose significant risks to its growth prospects.
Shocks & cycles
US Inflation Rate Holds Steady at 3.4% in July
The latest consumer price index report shows a moderate increase in prices, potentially reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike
Shocks & cycles
US Budget Deficit May Have Peaked Under Trump
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says there's a very good chance the US budget deficit has peaked under President Donald Trump
Shocks & cycles
July CPI Report: Inflation Remains Above Target, But Shows Signs of Easing
The July consumer price index report shows inflation rising 0.1% for the month, with an annual rate of 3.4%, and core readings of 0.2% and 2.5%
Shocks & cycles
Trump Criticizes Fed Interest Rate Policy, Citing High US Rates Compared to Global Competitors
US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, arguing that the US should be paying lower rates compared to other countries.
Shocks & cycles
Iran Considers European Military Targets Amid Rising Tensions with Trump Administration
Insiders reveal Iran is evaluating potential military targets in Europe as a response to escalating tensions with the Trump administration, highlighting the growing geopolitical risks in the region.
Shocks & cycles
Trump Ballroom Official Held Quiet Kremlin Talks
A Trump ballroom official reportedly held quiet talks with Kremlin officials, sparking interest in the international community.
Shocks & cycles
Wholesale Prices Remain Flat in July, Below Expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale costs for goods and services were unchanged in July, contrary to forecasts of a 0.2% increase.
Shocks & cycles
US Tech Stock Correction Warned by ECB Economists
ECB economists warn of a potential correction in US tech stocks, citing concerns over valuations and growth prospects.
Shocks & cycles
The Monetary Roots of Political Extremism
A recent report highlights the connection between the Geneva School of economists and the rise of plutocrats like Elon Musk.