UN warns supersized El Niño to hit global economy until 2027
A 'supersized' El Niño climate event will persist until February 2027, threatening global commodity markets and energy production with extreme weather, the
A 'supersized' El Niño climate event is intensifying and will last until February 2027, posing a major threat to the global economy. The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued the warning on Thursday, stating the phenomenon raises the risk of floods, droughts, and extreme heat worldwide.
Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the WMO, said the event "has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world." She added that disruption and devastation from droughts and floods are already being seen and are expected to increase as El Niño strengthens.
Global Commodity Disruption
Countries in Asia-Pacific and Latin America will face the most immediate impacts, but effects on commodities will be felt globally. Crops like corn, cocoa, and coffee are at risk, alongside energy markets. In Central America, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are experiencing erratic weather and drought linked to El Niño, causing severe crop losses. Indonesia is battling devastating wildfires.
A weaker monsoon in India is expected to impact the growth of rice, sugar, cotton, and soybeans. Officials in Peru report a "devastating blow" to anchovy fishing, which is commonly used in livestock feed.
Energy and Industrial Risks
Extreme weather is predicted to have unpredictable effects on energy generation and demand. Potential disruption looms for hydropower, wind and solar output, oil and gas production, refining operations, and mining activities. This introduces volatility into global energy supply chains.
UN Secretary General António Guterres stated on Thursday that El Niño was being "supersized before our eyes." He declared the world is in "the danger zone of extreme weather" and emphasized a race between rising risks and the commitment to climate action.
Scientific Measurements of the Event
An El Niño event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Current measurements show a significantly more intense phenomenon.
According to the WMO's latest research, sea surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July. From late July to mid-August, they ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal. Below the surface, the warmth is described as "even more exceptional," with subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.
| Measurement Period | Temperature Anomaly (Celsius above average) |
|---|---|
| July (sea surface) | >2.0°C |
| Late July to mid-August (sea surface) | 2.2°C to 2.6°C |
| July to early August (subsurface) | >8.0°C |
El Niño, meaning "little boy" in Spanish, is a naturally occurring climate pattern. It oscillates with its counterpart, La Niña or "little girl," every two to seven years. The current event's exceptional intensity and duration are what prompted the UN's stark economic warning.
